Regularities in football goal distributions
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
1 Football goal distributions and extremal statistics
We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored cannot be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions; here, we compare the PDFs with those arising from extremal st...
متن کاملFe b 20 02 Football goal distributions and extremal statistics
We analyse the distributions of the number of goals scored by home teams, away teams, and the total scored in the match, in domestic football games from 169 countries between 1999 and 2001. The probability density functions (PDFs) of goals scored are too heavy-tailed to be fitted over their entire ranges by Poisson or negative binomial distributions which would be expected for uncorrelated proc...
متن کاملFootball fever: goal distributions and non-Gaussian statistics
Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the not purely random, but highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the probability distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. As it turns out, especially the tails of the distributions are not well described by the Poissonian or binomial model resulting from t...
متن کاملFootball fever: self-affirmation model for goal distributions
The outcome of football games, as well as matches of most other popular team sports, depends on a combination of the skills of players and coaches and a number of external factors which, due to their complex nature, are presumably best viewed as random. Such parameters include the unpredictabilities of playing the ball, the player’s condition of the day or environmental influences such as the w...
متن کاملPredicting goal probabilities for possessions in football
Football analytics has been on the rise, yet no previous efforts have been made to compute the probability a possession becomes a goal, like in basketball. In this paper goal probabilities will be modeled for the English Premier League for the season 2016/2017. Ridged logistic regression with a sliding window approach will be used to model the sequential information in possession chains. Severa...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
سال: 2000
ISSN: 0378-4371
DOI: 10.1016/s0378-4371(00)00363-0